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Amylin Stock Is Catching A Bid

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) has really been on a tear these past two trading days. As a long term holder of AMLN this is a pleasant development. However, I have to ask why the sudden jump in the stock over the past two trading sessions? There are several reasons for the sudden rise of AMLN of which any one or a combination of could be causing the rise. Here are some of those causal factors:

• The stock was simply too oversold and short interest climbed too high
• With all of the negative news about Zetia from Schering Plough (SGP) and Lipitor from Pfizer (PFE) and other statins perhaps someone finally woke up to the fact that diabetes treatment is all that much more important and the big cap pharmaceutical companies may be forced to buy AMLN
• The decline of the inhaled insulin product lines gives AMLN approved and commercially available products – Byetta and Symlin - more credibility and sales potential.

I continue to believe that AMLN Byetta LAR long acting formulation will be approved and once that occurs we will see a huge jump in analysts estimates and future sales. That is at least a year out but well worth the wait as Byetta and Symlin sales continue to grow.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of AMLN --- although positions can change at any time.

MasterCard Deal With Ameriprise to Benefit MasterCard

Over the weekend MasterCard (MA) announced that it entered into an arrangement with Ameriprise Financial (AMP) whereby AMP would be issuing MasterCards and debit cards. This has to be a big letdown for AMP former parent American Express (AXP) and the soon to be public Visa. AMP has over 2 million clients all of which would be eligible for the new cards. As MA takes no credit risk, this would yield accretive processing fees for MA.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of MA--- although positions can change at any time.

Dow Jones Blows Opportunity To Revitalize Its Industrial Index

When Dow Jones announced its decision to replace Altria (MO) and Honeywell (HON) with Bank of America (BAC) and Chevron (CVX) today, the brand now owned by News Corp (NWS) totally blew its opportunity to modernize the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA/DIA/DDM). The price weighted DJIA is just plain out of touch with today's investors and professional money managers.

I will be on Fox Business Network's Happy Hour - also owned by NWS - tonight to discuss with my friend and the show's co-host Cody Willard what NWS needs to do to make the DJIA relevant once again. The show airs at 5PM EDT and is repeated at 11PM EDT.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of BAC and DDM--- although positions can change at any time.

Observations Of Omniture

I was happy that my investment club members at Seton Hall were around to watch, listen and observe the Omniture (OMTR) earning release, conference call and after hours trading activity last evening. The stock got slammed after hours on a great quarter and guidance. I showed the kids how the stock was being walked down by 100 share sales constantly hitting the bid after hours. The stock dropped roughly 13% before the conference call began. This was a major gift to anyone who could trade after hours. More importantly, I pointed out that one could not read into that low volume after-hours blitzkrieg. During the conference call OMTR regained some ground as the after-hours manipulation ceased. It is now up 10% on the day in a real trading session. If you believe as I do in the long term growth of internet advertising then I suggest taking a look at OMTR. Oppenheimer recently put out a well written report on the stock.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of OMTR--- although positions can change at any time.

Basic Materials Soap Opera Gets More Interesting

Rio Tinto (RTP) is surging after Alcoa (AA) and Chinalco (Aluminum Corp of China) take a 12% stake in RTP. BHP Billiton (BHP) has an open offer for RTP which RTP continues to rebuff. In the meantime Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) looks like the ugly girl sitting in a chair in the corner at the high school dance. As this soap opera plays out don't be surprised if RTP jilting of BHP overtures results in BHP going after FCX.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of FCX--- although positions can change at any time.

5 Reasons To Buy McDonald's Right Now

Here are 5 reasons why you want to buy McDonald’s (MCD) off the back of today’s irrational sell-off:

1. The flat same store sales for December will not be repeated as MCD guided to a 1.5% comp for January.
2. Fiscal and monetary stimulus will benefit MCD
3. The stock has corrected 20% from where I already alerted long term investors to take some of the stock off the table
4. Growth in China
5. Expansion of McCafe concept in Germany which I believe will eventually be MCD direct competition to Starbucks (SBUX) in the US

I added stock on today's pullback.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of MCD --- although positions can change at any time.

2008 Jim and Judy O’Brien Financial Markets and Economic Colloquium at Seton Hall University’s Stillman School of Business

On Wednesday January 30, 2008 I will be hosting the 3rd annual Jim and Judy O’Brien Financial Markets and Economic Colloquium at Seton Hall University’s Stillman School of Business in South Orange, New Jersey.

This year we will kick off the colloquium at 4:30 PM with a student research presentation reviewing investment opportunities associated with potential election outcomes. The Stillman School of Business is the twice reigning NYSSA Challenge Champions. Following that presentation our panel of market experts will discuss their thoughts on the economy and financial markets for the year ahead. At last year's colloquiuim we adeptly pointed out the risks inherent in the credit markets and identified many individual stock opportunities as well.

This year’s panel includes Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners; Tony Dwyer, Equity Market Strategist, FTN Midwest Securities: Gregory Peters, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Credit Strategist and Director of Global Fixed Income Research & Economics; Brian Reynolds, Chief Market Strategist of M.S. Howell & Co.; Cody Willard, host of Fox Business News’ Happy Hour; and, myself, Scott Rothbort.

The best news is that this is all free. The Stillman School of Business is making this event open to the public. Please mark your calendar now and I hope to see you at this great event. Parking is free and directions are available on the Seton Hall website.

10 Things That I Will Not Miss About 2007

This content originally appeared on TheStreet.com’s RealMoney Silver on Dec. 20.

Another year has passed. I hope that you are all a year healthier, wealthier and wiser. As I have done for each of the past five years, and back by popular demand, I would like to share with you the "10 Things That I Will Not Miss About 2007" -- and do not want to see or hear ever again.

Here we go (in no particular order).

1. "They’re trying to make me go to rehab, I said, 'No, no, no.'" Amy Winehouse, Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohan all checked into and out of (and sometimes back into) substance abuse programs this year. Why not? It seems like the optimal thing to do.

The entire world keeps downloading their songs (and movies) through Apple's (AAPL) iTunes despite their misdeeds. It seems like these pop idols are just auditioning for the reality series "Celebrity Rehab With Dr. Drew," which will premiere on Viacom's (VIA) VH1 on Jan. 10, 2008.

As much as the Mitchell Report on performance-enhancing drug use in Major League Baseball may have been flawed, nevertheless, fans of baseball have turned against the slugging and pitching juicers like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. The same can be said of Marion Jones and Floyd Landis in their respective sports.

To the singers, actors and athletes who abuse substances and expect our adoration, I say, "No, no, no."

2. Crude oil going to $100. Eventually, crude oil will get there, however, it might not happen just yet. The incessant prognostication, pontification and speculation surrounding crude oil hitting $100 a barrel is nauseating.

Do some homework and own oil services companies such as Schlumberger (SLB) or Diamond Offshore (DO) because no matter if crude oil is $80 or $100 or $120, we still need to get more of this stuff out of the ground.

3. Scott Boras can't play bridge. Scott Boras has the premier baseball player of our generation, Alex Rodriguez (A-Rod), as his client. A-Rod plays on the biggest stage in baseball, Yankee Stadium. A-Rod had an option to stick around for three more years at a huge salary that even dwarfs those of the bank CEOs who lose billions of dollars.

So what does Boras do? He instructs his client to opt out of the contract. I am talking about a real contract, not contract bridge. So what does A-Rod do? He calls a real bridge player, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) CEO Warrant Buffett.

The Oracle of Omaha then dials up some of his buddies at Goldman Sachs (GS) . You know Goldman Sachs, it is the only financial institution on the planet in which the members of its staff earned their bonuses the old-fashioned way, by making money for shareholders.

Goldman Sachs happens to be a partner with the New York Yankees in the YES network. Goldman Sachs, Warren Buffett and the Steinbrenners know when they have a stronger hand and arrange for a contract extension at the original terms that the Yankees offered to A-Rod, less what the Yankees were supposed to receive from the Texas Rangers.

Scott Boras has met his match and holds no trump cards. I think that Max Bialystock could have given A-Rod better advice.

4. Judge shows. It started out with Judge Wapner. That was fun. It was original.

Now on the air we have Judge Judy Sheindlin, Judge Marilyn Milian, Judge Joe Brown, Judge Greg Mathis, Judge Cristina Perez, Judge Glenda Hatchett, Judge Maria Lopez, Judge Alex Ferrer and Judge Lynn Toler. Pardon me if I missed a few.

You can channel surf and watch courtroom shows back to back for hours on end. If you don't believe me, then take a day off and try it. I have had enough of these silly judge shows.

All is not lost, though. Here is an idea that I will offer to my friends Jim Cramer of General Electric's (GE) CNBC and Cody Willard of News Corporation's (NWS) Fox Business News, as long as I get the creative credit and a paid co-producer role: Judge Jim or Judge Cody. I would even put on a uniform and play bailiff.

Here is how it would work:

Voiceover: Real stocks! Real investors! Judge Jim is in the courtroom! Welcome to "Investors' Court." Long Louie bought Sharper Image (SHRP) on Broker Blowhard's research recommendation. He is suing for bad gift ideas.

Of course it goes both ways. Maybe we hear this:

Voiceover: Real stocks! Real traders! Judge Cody calls the court to order! Welcome to "Traders' Court." Short Sally shorted Google (GOOG) based on Hedge Fund Harry's newsletter. She is suing for short-sighted advice.

Gentlemen, start your gavels!

5. Junk email. Last year, I was so concerned for that poor Nigerian prince who emailed me when he could not get his $5 million out of the bank. Then again, because I was so inundated with emails from his other several hundred princely paupers, I decided that it was best to charge $3 million as an upfront fee to help them in their endeavor to free up their lost money.

I had no takers.

Well, as it turned out, those princes must have solved their problems, because I don't hear from them anymore. Now I have a bigger problem, though. It has to do with -- how shall I put this? -- my manhood.

I did not think that after siring six children that I had such a problem, but it appears that some people think otherwise because I receive dozens of emails a day for cheap mail order pharmaceuticals like Pfizer's (PFE) Viagra and Eli Lilly's (LLY) Cialis.

To those spammers, when it comes to size, I would be worried about positions in Pfizer and Eli Lilly, both of which I would not be long.

6. ADP payroll report. Annually, I name the most overexposed metric of the year. For 2007, Automatic Data Processing's (ADP) National Employment Report gets the nod.

The self-serving ADP report, which is released two days before the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report, has a poor track record of predictability and accuracy.

I am tired of listening to the press coverage that the ADP report receives. What is even worse is the Pavlovian response (both buying and selling) that is triggered when the report is released.

7. Election polls. Bill Clinton was a virtual unknown at this point in the 1992 campaign. He won the election. The media has now started to coronate his queen as the next President of the United States. Along comes another Razorback, Mike Huckabee, and polls begin to change.

Let me remind people that Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries and Zogby polls do not decide who will be the next President. In fact, our constitution provides for a general election and an arcane process of selecting a Prez and his/her trusty sidekick the Veep.

So please take your polls and shove 'em.

8. Naming market tops and bottoms as if they were sport stadiums. The duct-tape bottom? The Blackstone (BX) top? I am sick and tired with these nom de markets.

How about we sell naming rights to bull markets and bear markets to companies? Even better, we should sell naming rights for a particular quarter.

How does the Baidu (BIDU) Third Quarter of 2008 sound to you? Maybe that would draw some buying interest for NYSE Euronext (NYX) stock.

9. Overused commercials. Sometimes too much of a good thing can be bad. If I have to hear one more of Anheuser-Busch's (BUD) Bud Light "Real Men of Genius" commercials on my car radio, I am going to crash my vehicle into a brick wall. The first few were entertaining and original, but now they are downright moronic.

MasterCard (MA) is one of the great investment stories of 2007 and should continue to return value to shareholders in 2008. Those "Priceless" commercials, however, are just too painful to watch anymore.

The "Cavemen" series of commercials for Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) Geico yielded a failed TV show. (Technically, it is on hiatus.) With the TV writers on strike, maybe it's time to give Geico's gecko his own show.

10. The Fed is cutting rates to bail out hedge funds. It certainly sounds good if you want to be politically correct in an economic sense, however, the Fed is only responsible for monetary, not fiscal, policy.

Furthermore, the Fed is interested in economic growth and financial market stability; it could care less about the profitability or "going concern" status of an individual entity, unless that would cause a systemic event.

If you want to better understand the Fed's responsibilities, take at look at its own publication on its purposes and functions.

I am the first to criticize the FOMC for its short-sighted actions and lack of responsible communications, but thinking that the Fed, or the FOMC, is focused on bailing out hedge funds is absurd.

My best wishes for a happy and healthy holiday and New Year season to all of you and your families. Thank you for your personal notes and professional advice during the past year. I hope our RealMoney team has made this year a profitable and enlightening one for our subscribers. Last but not least, thanks to our tireless contributors and editors who work so hard every day to produce this fine product.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of AAPL, SLB, DO, GS, GOOG and MA --- although positions can change at any time.

Six Flags Roller Coaster RIde May Be Over.

Six Flags (SIX) is creeping ever lower. The company reported disappointing guidance and will take a charge of about $30 million. The next stop for SIX is bankruptcy. SIX was inducted into my list of worst managed companies in the United States. Here is a thought. Eddie Lampert buys up the $2.5 billion of debt for pennies on the dollar, takes control of the company in bankruptcy court, sells the amusements off to other operators for scrap metal and then owns the prime SIX real estate for well below market value.

Wild Market Swings and a Look At 2007 Daily Results

After some recent wild market swings, I felt like torturing some numbers. So, I decided to take a look at some of the big up and down days that the market has endured this year. Using the S&P500 (SPX) as the basis for the analysis, YTD inclusive to November 1, 2007, here is what I ascertained

• 116 positive days – Total simple aggregate return was 72.18%; simple average daily return was 0.62% per day
• 95 down days – Total simple aggregate return was -65.11%; simple average daily return was -.69% per day
• 23 days with returns greater than 1% - Total simple aggregate return was 34.24%; simple average daily return was 1.49% per day
• 24 days with returns less than -1% - Total simple aggregate return was -43.69%; simple average daily return was -1.82% per day
• 4 days with returns greater than 2% - Total simple aggregate return was 9.99%; simple average daily return was 2.50% per day
• 8 days with returns less than -2% - Total simple aggregate return was –21.02%; simple average daily return was -2.63% per day
• Total net simple aggregate price return for days with return plus/minus 1% is -9.45%
• Total price return for the SPX for the year is 6.36%

So what can we infer about the price action of the SPX from this data? While the magnitude of down days is greater than that of up days the market still remains higher as the quantity of up days is greater than the quantity of down days. Thus the down days are more taxing than up days but are harder to come by.

Panic tend to come in days of selling rather than during days of buying. i

How does this compare historically?

In 2007, 55% of trading days ended higher while 45% of trading days were in the red. From 1950 through 2006 the SPX ended higher on 53.6% of trading days.

As stated above the average up day returned 0.62% while the average down day returned -0.69%. From 1950 through 2006 for the SPX the average up day was up 0.62% while the average down day was -0.64%.

The SPX has advanced 6.36% so far in 2007 after the November 1 drubbing of -2.64%. This compares to the simple average annual return of 9.37% for that index. Of course 2007 has nearly 2 more months to go.

Thus, for all the chest thumping, foot stomping, shoe banging and emotional outbursts exhibited by bulls and bears alike this year, the simple fact is that the SPX is trading in a manner which is quite typical on an historical basis.

While the data just looks at 2007 versus historical data, I believe that this analysis can be expanded to look at individual years for which we can further parse out and query in multiple ways. Given the chance I will endeavor to do so.

Garmin Should Be Bought On Weakness As The Tele Atlas News Is A Positive Event

Garmin (GRMN) reported EPS of 89 cents this morning beating already lofty expectations of 82 cents. The stock is selling off despite these results.

I can attribute this sell-off to one of three reasons. First, the old whisper number game is being played and despite GRMN reporting 78% growth in EPS was obviously not enough for the fast money crowd. Second, the stock was due for some profit taking.

The third reason is actually a reason to be buying the stock in here. GRMN announced concurrently with its earnings report the company’s intention to purchase Tele Atlas for EUR 2.3 billion or USD $3.3 billion which represents an approximate 15% premium to the bid made by rival TomTom for Tele Atlas. Recall that a few weeks ago Nokia (NOK) agreed to buy Tele Atlas’ digital mapping competitor Navteq (NVT) for $8.1 billion. The NOK/NVT deal would have left GRMN as the odd man out in terms of having a vertically integrated digital mapping source. GRMN was sold heavily on that news. Now that GRMN is in the game for Tele Atlas, the immediate reaction is to sell the acquirer. Since TomTom is not likely to go away quiet, investors may be concerned that GRMN would have to pay significantly more that $3.3 billion if a bidding war erupts. However, GRMN is far better positioned than TomTom to finance the acquisition and I think will be triumphant at the end of the day. TomTom shares are significantly lower in Europe as investors confirm that GRMN is now in the drivers’ seat for Tele Atlas.

In conclusion, the earnings plus the Tele Atlas news is a positive for GRMN and the stock should be bought on weakness, especially as it is down double digits in early trading today.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of GRMN --- although positions can change at any time.

Know Your Components of ETFs

I really enjoy David Letterman and am not much of a Jay Leno fan. Maybe it is an East Coast / West Coast thing. Or maybe it’s because I was a real Johnny Carson fan and Letterman is cut from Carson’s mold. One of my favorite bits on Letterman is “Know Your Cuts of Beef.” In than spirit I have my own version today – Know Your Components of ETFs.

This comes out of a conversation with an old friend who from time to time will closely follow my recommendations. He asked me yesterday where I thought Google (GOOG) was going. I said I have a target of $750- $850. This is based on both a top down and bottom up analysis which I performed with my research team. My friend said that he owned the Internet HOLDRs (HHH), an ETF comprised of internet stocks. To his surprise, I informed him that GOOG was not represented in the HHH. I explained that HHH was mostly comprised of Ebay (EBAY), Amazon.com (AMZN), Yahoo (YHOO) and Time Warner (TWX). HHH was introduced and launched many years before GOOG came to market and is a fixed portfolio. Since he thought he had GOOG exposure but had none; he wanted to keep exposure to EBAY and YHOO; and, wanted to cut back on exposure to TWX, AMZN and the other residual stocks in the HHH comprising about 15% of the portfolio he immediately sold some (but not all) of his HHH and used the proceeds to buy GOOG.

The lesson - Know Your Components of ETFs.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of GOOG --- although positions can change at any time.

Facebook Will Not Save The Decline of the Microsoft Empire

Here are my thoughts on the Microsoft (MSFT) investment in Facebook. 20 years ago the company’s operating systems burst on the scene and helped to launch the desktop computing revolution. In the process it became a virtual monopoly. MSFT was the hunted and the rest of technology was the hunters. Now 20 years later, Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) have emerged to be the leading edge of technology as MSFT is still trapped in its windows mindset. MSFT is now the hunter and no longer the hunted. The Zune is a joke. XBOX is an industry laggard. Any attempt to cut in on iPhone by MSFT will likely be a failure. The leadership at MSFT is rusty at best. Bill Gates is too focused on social issues and playing cards with Warren Buffett. The small investment in Facebook will not generate any meaningful benefit to MSFT. In the end, buying MSFT based on this news is a giant mistake.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of AAPL and GOOG --- although positions can change at any time.

Disney And Its ABC Network Are The Big Winners In The New TV Season

So far, in my opinion, ABC (a division of Disney (DIS)) gets my vote for delivering the best new shows of the television season. We (my wife and yours truly) really enjoy watching Dirty Sexy Money and Big Shots. Both shows are quirky, avoid the formulaic model churned out by network TV, are not retreads and don’t have Law and Order or CSI in the title. The Disney Channel release of High School Musical 2 at the end of the summer was a formulaic hit which will generate secondary revenues for DIS in the months to come. ABC also premiered Cavemen this week which we unfortunately missed but plan to catch up on and watch in the future. Two new shows premiered this summer which I also highly recommend. The first one is also an ABC show, Greek. Our kids like to watch Greek with us, especially when I interject my experiences at Pi Kappa Alpha at the University of Pennsylvania. Greek appears on the cable ABC Family channel. The other summer entry is Damages which is on the FX (a NewsCorp/Fox (NWS)) cable channel. Damages is enthralling and is something I would expect on the big screen or HBO. The show has not yet ended its season run however there will be opportunities to catch the entire series at a later date when FX repeats the shows or it gets released on DVD. Speaking of HBO, the new season of Curb Your Enthusiasm is superb and for those of you desiring a more mature, sexually explicit and intellectual selection all in one, check out Tell Me You Love Me.

So does this translate into an investible idea? Perhaps. First, I would eliminate General Electric (GE) the parent of NBC and NBC Universal. Why did NBC lack patience with Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip? CBS is stuck in CSI mode and is still a company operated by and for Sumner Redstone. I would avoid CBS as well. DIS will bore you to death but it has delivered consistent positive returns to shareholders despite some of the boardroom drama the company loves to surface every few years. I would not exactly categorize DIS as a growth company but if I was looking to down shift some risk, DIS would be a top candidate. Finally, there is News Corp (NWS). I really like what Rupert Murdoch is doing with the Dow Jones (DJ) acquisition and how it fits in perfectly with his new concept, Fox Business Network (best of luck to my dear friend and colleague Cody Willard). NWS has a similar risk profile to that of DIS. In fact, if you overlay a 5 year chart of DIS over that of NWS, the two companies’ stocks nearly tracks each other. So, I would put NWS in the same category as DIS and would be indifferent to add either one if those conditions I discussed above were presented to me.

Starbucks Downgraded - Short Thesis Playing Out

Andy Barish one of the best restaurant analysts who resides at Bank of America (BAC) downgraded Starbucks (SBUX) to a sell early this morning. Barish places a $23.00 price target for the coffee themed quick service restaurant which closed at $27.69 yesterday. Supporting his call he cites: slowing growth; EPS / margin / same store sales risk to the downside; and, a contraction of the earnings multiple. BAC 2008 EPS estimate for SBUX is $1.02 versus consensus of $1.06. When initiating my recent short in SBUX I also came to the conclusion that growth was slowing, that earnings estimates will soon be reduced and that the PE had further to decline. It is nice to be in Barish’s company. Expect Barish’s peers to follow his lead in cutting EPS and price targets for SBUX.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of BAC and short shares of SBUX --- although positions can change at any time.

Opportunity in First Israel Fund

The First Israel Fund (ISL) is off nearly 6% in above average volume. The sell-off eliminates the 4% premium that ISL had to its NAV and puts it slightly back into discount. However, the Israeli stock indexes were only off about ½% on Thursday and the markets are closed in Eretz Yisrael on Fridays and Saturday (Yom Shabbat). The largest holding in ISL is Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). TEVA comprises about 10% of ISL holdings. TEVA received some good news today when it received a favorable court ruling allowing the company to produce a generic form of Wyeth’s (WYE) Protonix prescription heartburn medication. TEVA is off about 2/3% today and if the market was not weak I believe it would be trading higher. WYE is falling over 3%. Today is another great example of the cuffs not matching the collars and you have a nice opportunity to pick up ISL. Shabbat Shalom to all.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of ISL --- although positions can change at any time.

HAIN is Celestial

Hain Celestial (HAIN) delivered a great report after the bell last night. The company earned 30 cents versus consensus of 28 cents for 4q07. For FY07 HAIN earned $1.17. Add to that good report a boost in FY08 guidance to a range of $1.38 - $1.42 versus current consensus estimates of $1.38. At the midpoint this implies 20% YOY growth. I am willing to pay 25 times earnings for HAIN. The merger of Whole Foods (WFMI) and Wild Oats (OATS) will draw more attention to HAIN from potential suitors. I am raising my price target for HAIN to $35 - $36 based on operations. On a takeover, the stock is worth $40 or more.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of HAIN --- although positions can change at any time.

We Need The SEC To Act In Order To Protect Shareholder Rights and Ensure Investor Confidence.

So where is the SEC these days? They are busy checking how the big investment banks are marking their mortgage and other asset backed positions. While that is going on here is what the SEC is also doing:

• Eliminating the short sale up-tick rule to allow short raids on stocks. This rule was put in place in response to the 1929 crash. For what reason was it lifted now?
• Standing aside while slum dunking of options on ETFs and stocks related to ETFs takes place.
• Allowing unsubstantiated rumors to be spread to the financial media despite lack of validity or corroboration.

I fully respect the SEC’s role in the financial markets. What I am saying is that there are many other issues which that regulatory body needs to address in very short order to protect shareholder rights and ensure investor confidence.

Another Volatility Spike Has Occurred

With yesterday’s panic sell-off, the CBOE OEX Volatility Index once again surpassed its 200 day moving average by over 50%. This indicates another volatility spike condition similar to the one that I pointed out last month in this blog. Thus, it is time once again to look forward to a rise in the S&P 500 (SPX/SPY) over the next 20 trading days. While I was already long SPY from the last spike, I added to my positions with SPY call options.

At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares and calls of SPY--- although positions can change at any time.